Stickin'

Every generation faces a struggle and is defined by it. We are shaped by the events of our time and our very perception of the world is molded from our experience. My parent's world was shaped by the Great Depression and the worst war in history, followed by the cold war. My own generation grew up under the terror of nuclear holocaust, and was shaped by the Civil Rights struggle and the Vietnam War and all of the blood, assassinations and rage that resulted from a radical shift in consciousness and the radical reaction to that shift.

Sooner or later, the world moves on, and the struggles of one generation are no longer center stage. Sooner or later the torch is passed from the old to the young. For the past 20 years or so my generation has dominated the political will of our nation, and the stark polarities that we've carried and nursed since the sixties have made it increasingly difficult to move forward. While the whole world awaits our leadership we've become more and more mired in battles over class, race, religion and the very definition of who we are as a nation.

Every generation faces a struggle and is defined by it. We are shaped by the events of our time and our very perception of the world is molded from our experience. My parent's world was shaped by the Great Depression and the worst war in history, followed by the cold war. My own generation grew up under the terror of nuclear holocaust, and was shaped by the Civil Rights struggle and the Vietnam War and all of the blood, assassinations and rage that resulted from a radical shift in consciousness and the radical reaction to that shift.

Sooner or later, the world moves on, and the struggles of one generation are no longer center stage. Sooner or later the torch is passed from the old to the young. For the past 20 years or so my generation has dominated the political will of our nation, and the stark polarities that we've carried and nursed since the sixties have made it increasingly difficult to move forward. While the whole world awaits our leadership we've become more and more mired in battles over class, race, religion and the very definition of who we are as a nation.

The coming election will be decided not on policy issues, but cultural ones. The leading candidates on either side pretty much resemble one another in terms of their main agendas, however one side represents a nation governed by a traditional oligarchy of xenophobic white Christian men, and the other represents the full diversity that, it can be argued, makes America something greater than just another fading empire.

The victory of Barack Obama in the Iowa caucus was an exhilarating sign that a new generation is getting ready to take up the sword to deal with the vital issues that press upon us all. He was put over the top by the young, who for the first time in memory were inspired enough to actually show up. This is wonderful news, to say the least. The victory of a black man in a state that is 95% white is in itself a remarkable indication that real change is on the way.

But, the old generation does not go down without a fight. When I watch the evening news and listen to the candidates the flush of hopeful, wishful enthusiasm that came out of the Obama/Iowa victory is nudged to the side by a dose of skepticism. Memories of fresh ideals crushed by bitter experience bring me back to the ground that I'm used to standing on. Obama still strikes me, when I hear him talk, as being mostly rhetoric about 'hope and change' with little of substance to back it up. His audiences appear to be swept up so much in 'hopeful' (wishful) thinking that I don't think it really matters to them whether he has substance or not. He parties like a rock star, but is he ready for prime time? I wish him well, but I remember how thrilled we were when Jimmy Carter became 'the first rock and roll president.' They trashed the hell out of him. With a Democratic congress at his back Obama could certainly mount a good effort, but my sense is that he will be stepping in the middle of a snake pit and I have doubts that he's really prepared to dodge all the snakes.

We want politics to be a congenial march toward consensus, but that is not how the thing is designed. We have a two party system governed by a Constitution that is designed to slow the wheels of change, to allow the consideration of issues to bridge generations and foster the domination of reason over collective emotion. A president, no matter how charismatic, can only bring enduring change through a long and laborious process of dealing with opposing agendas. To effect real change a president needs the cooperation of congress. In terms of policy. the makeup of the house and senate are of more significance than who holds the office of Chief. Beyond that, a president can inspire by providing an image of responsible leadership. A president Obama can follow the example of a Bill Clinton, who seeks compromise, or of George W. Bush, who tries to elevate himself above the fray. In the end that same force of charisma can backfire and land its practitioner on the trash heap of ridicule. The public and the press are relentlessly fickle when it comes to hero worship. That which they build is in turn torn down. Ultimately, being a good president comes down to the nitty gritty of being able to make deals.

In the face of all of the Obama rapture, I still must defer. Let's see if the groundswell has legs enough to take him from the brilliant speech he gave at the 2004 convention all the way to the nomination. His main advantages as a candidate are that he's still a somewhat unknown quantity, and unlike Hillary, he doesn't have a big red target painted on his back. He's certainly proven that he wants to be president enough to do what it takes to get there, but he hasn't proven to me that he knows what he'll do once he arrives.

So, for now, I'm stickin' with Hillary.

My prediction for New Hampshire is Obama first with Hillary a close second, Richardson out of the race and Edwards a distant third.